Artificial general intelligence (AGI) has moved from speculation to the centre of political debate. This report examines arguments that AGI could emerge in the near future and considers what such a development would mean for Europe. It adopts a working definition of AGI as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work. On this definition, empirical trends and expert judgement suggest that it is plausible that AGI could emerge between 2030 and 2040 or even earlier, though uncertainty remains substantial. The emergence of such systems could reshape economic growth, military capabilities and international stability, while intensifying competitive and coercive dynamics among nations, well beyond those produced by current AI systems. Against this backdrop, strategic awareness of frontier AI developments remains uneven across European governments and institutions. Moreover, Europe is currently lagging on key measures of competitive positioning, holds only limited leverage in the AI value chain, and existing EU and Member State strategies do not yet match the potential stakes of AGI. This report proposes an authoritative AGI Preparedness Report, led by a figure with exceptional political authority and technical credibility, supported by a world class team. Its mandate would be to outline a coherent European strategy for prosperity, security and stable international governance in a possible AGI era.
